Wales secured a narrow 1-0 victory against Kazakhstan, keeping their World Cup qualification hopes alive. However, Belgium’s strong form poses a significant threat. Wales must win their remaining matches, especially against Belgium, to secure automatic qualification. Goal difference could be crucial if they finish level on points. A play-off spot is possible but would involve challenging matches. The upcoming games are decisive for Wales’ World Cup aspirations.
Wales' journey to the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico took another twist after a hard-fought 1-0 victory against Kazakhstan in Astana. While the three points were crucial, the performance left plenty for manager Craig Bellamy to ponder during the long flight home.
Former Wales captain Ashley Williams summed it up succinctly: "For games like this, all that matters is that you get the three points, get on the plane, get home." However, the narrow win raises questions about Wales' chances of qualifying for the World Cup as they approach the final stretch of their Group J campaign.
Image source, FAWWales have lost just one of their 11 games under Craig Bellamy
Currently, Wales lead Group J with 10 points, closely followed by North Macedonia with a game in hand. However, Belgium, with two games in hand and only three points behind, are the team Wales needs to keep a close eye on. Belgium's dominant 6-0 victory over Liechtenstein demonstrated their firepower and intent.
The equation is simple: the team that finishes top of the group automatically qualifies for the World Cup, while the runner-up advances to the 16-team play-offs, where four remaining spots are up for grabs.
Wales now face a wait before their next qualifier. They have friendly matches lined up against Canada in Swansea and England at Wembley. Meanwhile, Belgium has crucial home games against Kazakhstan and North Macedonia. If Belgium wins both, they'll move three points ahead of Wales before their crucial encounter in Cardiff on October 13th.
Captain Ben Davies acknowledged the significance of the upcoming match against Belgium, stating, "It [Belgium] is the biggest game we have going forward, but we had to put ourselves in a position where it is an important game, so job done." Following the Belgium match, Wales will conclude their campaign with a trip to Liechtenstein and a home game against North Macedonia.
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Watch: Moore goal earns Wales win over Kazakhstan
Wales' path to automatic qualification is clear: they need to win their remaining games. The draw against North Macedonia and the loss to Belgium earlier in the campaign have reduced their margin for error. A defeat against Belgium in Cardiff could leave them six points behind with just two games left.
Former striker Nathan Blake emphasized the importance of the Belgium game, stating, "If we can get three points off them and they have to come to a place like this and get three points with the pressure on... With a few injuries, you never know – but the Belgium game is gigantic for us."
Even if Wales and Belgium finish level on points, goal difference will be the deciding factor, not head-to-head results. Currently, Belgium has a superior goal difference, adding further pressure on Wales to not only win but also score goals.
Should Wales end up in the play-offs, they will face a one-legged semi-final and a one-legged final, needing to win both to secure qualification. The teams they could face are still uncertain, adding to the anxiety for fans.
If Wales finishes third in their group, they are almost guaranteed a play-off spot as one of the Nations League group winners. However, this comes with a disadvantage, as they would be seeded in pot four and likely face one of the highest-ranked runners-up in the semi-final.
Ultimately, Wales' destiny remains in their own hands. As Sam Vokes reminded, North Macedonia is still in contention and will be looking to cause an upset in Cardiff. Wales needs to focus on winning and maximizing their chances of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.
With everything on the line, the upcoming matches will be crucial in determining whether Wales can secure a coveted spot at the World Cup in USA, Canada, and Mexico.