England faces Serbia in a crucial World Cup qualifier as Thomas Tuchel aims to continue his winning start. Despite a perfect record, England’s performances have been underwhelming. Opta predicts an England win, but Serbia’s strong home record and experienced players like Mitrovic pose a threat. Kane seeks to end his goal drought, while England aims to solidify their position in Group K.
Thomas Tuchel stands on the precipice of history, potentially becoming only the fourth manager to secure five consecutive competitive wins at the helm of the England national team. This exclusive club currently boasts Fabio Capello (eight wins), Ron Greenwood (six wins), and Sven-Goran Eriksson (five wins). However, despite the winning streak, a shadow of doubt lingers over Tuchel's early tenure. While England are securing victories, their performances have been far from dazzling, leaving fans and pundits alike wanting more.
The most recent victory, a 2-0 win against Andorra at Villa Park, epitomized this underwhelming trend. Goals from a Christian Garcia own goal and Declan Rice were enough to secure the points, but against a team ranked 174th in the world by FIFA, such a result barely warrants celebration. As England prepare to face Serbia at Stadion Rajko Mitic, the pressure is on Tuchel to deliver a performance that matches the team's potential.
Getting back to it! pic.twitter.com/wH1snjFe6m
— England (@England) September 8, 2025
According to Opta's supercomputer, which has simulated the game 10,000 times, England are the favorites, winning in 50.3% of simulations. Serbia emerged victorious in 26.1% of the simulations, while a draw occurred 23.5% of the time. This match marks England's first visit to Serbia as an independent nation, their last encounter against Yugoslavia taking place in November 1987, a 4-1 victory in a European Championship qualifier.
Historically, England have dominated their encounters with Serbia, Yugoslavia, and Montenegro, winning their last five meetings with an aggregate score of 11-3. However, Serbia presents a significantly tougher challenge than England's previous opponents. They have lost only one of their last 24 World Cup qualifiers, a 3-2 defeat to Austria in October 2017, highlighting their resilience and competitiveness.
While England secured their fourth win in Group K against Andorra, their performance raised concerns. They managed a mere 11 shots, with only one after Rice's goal in the 67th minute. This lack of attacking impetus is a worrying sign for a team with so much talent at its disposal. Tuchel's pragmatic approach, while effective, has drawn comparisons to the criticism often leveled at his predecessor, Gareth Southgate.
Despite the concerns, the statistics paint a more positive picture. England have scored eight goals in their four qualifiers and boast the fourth-highest expected goals (xG) figure (11.0) among European teams. They also lead in average possession (78%) and clean sheets (four). Tuchel can point to these numbers as evidence of his approach's effectiveness.
Defensively, England have been rock solid, not conceding in their last six competitive fixtures. They are on the verge of equaling their longest run of clean sheets, set between October 1988 and October 1989 under Bobby Robson.
With Jude Bellingham injured and Phil Foden absent, Declan Rice is expected to play a more prominent role in supporting the attack. He has been increasingly influential, contributing to seven goals in his last 12 appearances for England, a stark contrast to his previous record of three goals in 55 appearances.
Noni Madueke, who provided the cross for Garcia's own goal against Andorra, impressed with his creativity, creating three chances and completing two dribbles. Elliot Anderson also made a positive impression on his debut, completing 107 of his 114 passes.
Serbia, the other undefeated team in Group K, will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage. After drawing with Albania and defeating Andorra, they edged past Latvia 1-0, thanks to Dusan Vlahovic's early goal. That result marked their third consecutive clean sheet in World Cup qualifying, their longest such run since 2010. However, they have only scored four goals in their three qualifiers and have underperformed their expected goals (xG) by 0.7.
England will need to be wary of Filip Kostic, who excels at creating chances and delivering crosses. Serbia also boasts a strong home record, losing only one of their last 28 home World Cup qualifiers since September 2001.
Aleksandar Mitrovic, Serbia's all-time leading scorer with 62 international goals, poses a significant threat. He will be looking to add to his tally against Jordan Pickford, a goalkeeper he has faced 24 times in the Premier League without scoring.
For England, Harry Kane will be eager to break his six-game goal drought. Despite a quiet performance against Andorra, Tuchel has defended his captain, who has a knack for delivering crucial goals for the Three Lions. Kane has scored away goals against 15 different opponents, just one shy of Wayne Rooney's record.
Having previously played at the venue for Tottenham against Crvena Zvezda in the Champions League, Kane will be hoping his experience at the ground will give him the edge to find the net and help England secure a vital win in their quest to qualify for the World Cup.