According to CIES Football Observatory, Liverpool is the most likely team to win the Premier League with a 28.9% probability. The statistical model considers various factors like sporting performance and economic variables. Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City trail behind, while other European leagues also have their favorites.
Liverpool stands as the frontrunner to clinch the Premier League title this season, according to a recent analysis by the CIES Football Observatory. The research group's statistical model gives the Reds a 28.9% chance of lifting the coveted trophy, surpassing other top contenders in the league. This prediction comes after Arne Slot successfully steered Liverpool to the 2024-25 title, showcasing his tactical prowess and leadership in his debut season. The team's dominant performance, finishing 10 points ahead of second-placed Arsenal, has further solidified their position as favorites.
Image source, Getty ImagesLiverpool won the 2024-25 Premier League title with four games to spare
While Liverpool leads the pack, Arsenal is also considered a strong contender, with an 18.8% chance of securing the title. Chelsea follows closely behind at 16.2%, surpassing Manchester City, who have a 14.4% probability. These figures highlight the competitive nature of the Premier League and the various teams vying for the top spot.
Notably, Manchester United, a team with a rich history in the Premier League, is given a relatively lower chance of winning, at just 2.6%. The Red Devils have not won the title since the 2013-14 season and face an uphill battle to reclaim their former glory.
The CIES Football Observatory's model takes into account multiple factors, including sporting performance, economic variables, and demographic data. It analyzes aspects such as passes into the final third and transfer fees to generate these probability assessments. This comprehensive approach provides a data-driven perspective on the potential outcomes of the Premier League season.
Beyond the Premier League, the CIES Football Observatory's analysis extends to other leagues across Europe. In the Scottish Premiership, Celtic emerges as the clear favorite, with a 63.3% chance of winning. Rivals Rangers, despite their struggles, still maintain a 28.9% probability.
In Spain's La Liga, Real Madrid is predicted to reclaim the title with a 40.6% chance, while defending champions Barcelona are given a 29.6% probability. The German Bundesliga sees Bayern Munich as the dominant force, with a 61.4% chance, significantly ahead of Borussia Dortmund at 8.8%.
Italy's Serie A presents a more competitive landscape, with Inter Milan leading at 25.6%, followed by Juventus at 18.2% and Napoli at 17.4%. In France, Paris St-Germain is heavily favored to win their fifth consecutive Ligue 1 title, boasting a 73.0% chance.
Across all 29 leagues analyzed by the CIES Football Observatory, Crvena Zvezda in Serbia has the highest probability of winning the title, with an impressive 76.2% chance. This demonstrates the varying levels of competitiveness and dominance across different football leagues.
The CIES Football Observatory's statistical model offers valuable insights into the potential outcomes of football leagues around the world. By considering a wide range of factors, the model provides a data-driven perspective on the teams most likely to achieve success. Whether Liverpool can live up to the Premier League prediction remains to be seen, but the numbers suggest they are well-positioned to make a strong title challenge.