Chelsea returns to the Champions League with a daunting trip to Bayern Munich. While Bayern are strong favorites, statistics suggest Chelsea have a surprising chance in the tournament overall. Key players like Kane and Palmer will be crucial for their respective teams.
Two-time European champions Chelsea are back in the Champions League after a two-year absence, and their return to the top table is anything but gentle – a challenging trip to face Bundesliga giants Bayern Munich.
Chelsea will feature in Europe’s premier club competition for the first time since the 2022-23 campaign, and the assignment doesn’t get much tougher than a visit to the Allianz Arena. This match marks a return to the scene of one of their most famous nights, but they’ll be facing a Bayern side in formidable form.
Vincent Kompany’s Bayern Munich were dominant Bundesliga champions last season, and they’ve continued their impressive form into the current campaign, already racking up 14 goals in just three league matches and securing maximum points. A convincing victory over Hamburger SV on Saturday showcased their attacking prowess, while Chelsea were held to a 2-2 draw by Brentford.
Wednesday’s clash promises to be an intriguing encounter, pitting two teams known for their attacking intent against each other. Opta statistics provide a deeper dive into the key aspects of this highly anticipated match-up.
Historically, Bayern Munich have had the upper hand in encounters with Chelsea. They’ve won three of their last four Champions League games against the Blues (with one draw), including both legs of their 2019-20 last-16 tie (3-0 away, 4-1 at home). Chelsea have lost 60% of their games against Bayern in the European Cup/Champions League – their highest loss percentage against any opponent they’ve faced at least five times in the competition. Only Barcelona (four wins) have defeated Chelsea more often than Bayern (three wins) in Europe’s elite club competition.
The Opta supercomputer, after running 10,000 simulations, predicts a 54.9% chance of a Bayern Munich victory. Chelsea are given a 23% win probability, with a 22.1% chance of a draw. Interestingly, despite the challenging fixture, the model surprisingly gives Chelsea a slightly higher probability (7%) of winning the entire Champions League tournament than Bayern Munich (5%).
Bayern Munich currently lead the scoring charts in Europe’s top five leagues, surpassing their expected goals (xG) of 8.6, ranking joint-third alongside Real Madrid. They are the only Bundesliga team with a perfect record this season, suggesting Chelsea’s defense will face a stern test.
While Bayern were knocked out by eventual runners-up Inter Milan in the last 16 of last season’s Champions League, their overall record in the group/league phase is exceptional. Since 2003-04, they boast the highest win percentage (73%) in the group stages, winning 93 of their 128 matches before the knockout rounds.
Bayern also have a strong recent record against English teams at home, losing only one of their last 11 matches (W8 D2), with that defeat coming against Liverpool in March 2019. They’ve defeated five different English sides during this run, including Chelsea.
Star forward Harry Kane will be key for Bayern. He has scored against Chelsea eight times in 22 previous meetings. Kane has started the season brilliantly, already netting 11 goals across all competitions, significantly outperforming his expected goals (xG) of 5.3.
Supporting Kane will be the likes of Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry, and Joshua Kimmich. Gnabry and Kane lead Bayern with four assists each, while Olise has three. Kimmich has created 28 chances and has two assists from 4.3 expected assists (xA).
Over the last three seasons, Kimmich leads all players in the Champions League for completed passes (2,525) and chances created (83). He was also the top-ranked player for line-breaking passes (219) last season.
Nicolas Jackson, on loan from Chelsea to Bayern, could feature against his parent club, likely from the bench.
Chelsea’s recent European form is encouraging. Since their last Champions League match in April 2023, they’ve won 12 of their 13 European matches (excluding qualifiers), including their Conference League triumph and the Club World Cup victory over Paris Saint-Germain.
Their Premier League start has been mixed, with two wins and two draws. The 2-2 draw against Brentford, conceding a late equalizer, will have been a disappointment. However, Chelsea lead the Premier League in goals scored (nine), alongside Arsenal and Liverpool.
The return of Cole Palmer from injury is a significant boost for Chelsea. He scored shortly after coming on as a substitute against Brentford. Estevao, if fit, could make his Champions League debut at just 18 years and 46 days old, potentially becoming one of the youngest players to score in the competition.
Chelsea are back in #UCL action this week! pic.twitter.com/vGGSeGD3y0
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) September 15, 2025
Players to Watch:
Bayern Munich – Manuel Neuer: Neuer is on the verge of a milestone, needing just one win to reach 100 Champions League victories. He already holds the records for most clean sheets and saves in the competition.
Chelsea – Cole Palmer: Palmer’s return to fitness is timely. He’s been directly involved in eight goals in his last eight international club games.