La Liga 2025-26 is predicted to see Barcelona retain the title, with Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid as strong contenders. The relegation battle is expected to be intense, with newly promoted teams facing tough competition to stay in the top flight, according to Opta’s supercomputer simulations.
La Liga is set to begin on Friday, with Girona and Rayo Vallecano facing off in the opening match. As the new season dawns, all eyes are on Barcelona. They are the reigning champions, having secured both the La Liga title and the Copa del Rey trophy last season. Barcelona also emerged victorious in the Supercopa de Espana. This accomplishment marked a successful debut season for coach Hansi Flick, during which attackers Raphinha and Lamine Yamal rose to prominence, even sparking Ballon d'Or talks.
Barcelona aims to build upon last season's achievements, while Real Madrid begins a new chapter under Xabi Alonso. Atletico Madrid, traditionally part of the "big three," has been actively reshaping Diego Simeone's squad during the summer.
Athletic Bilbao, securing a Champions League spot for the first time since 2014-15 with a fourth-place finish, has demonstrated its ambition by retaining star winger Nico Williams. Meanwhile, Villarreal is also set to compete among Europe's elite.
Among the newly promoted clubs, Real Oviedo returns to the top flight after 24 years. Santi Cazorla's team will commence their campaign against Villarreal before hosting Real Madrid in their second match back in La Liga.
Opta's supercomputer simulations offer insights into the anticipated dynamics of the 2025-26 La Liga season.
Barcelona is heavily favored to retain the La Liga title, building on their strong performance from last season where they finished just four points ahead of second-place Real Madrid. Barcelona dominated with 102 goals, leading Europe’s top five leagues, and also topped expected goals (92.2) and shots (678). Raphinha was a key player, with 56 goal involvements, while Robert Lewandowski scored 42 goals. Lamine Yamal led La Liga in assists (13) and dribbles.
The supercomputer predicts Barcelona to retain the title in 46.5% of simulations, finish second in 26.4%, and has a 13.6% chance of missing the top three. Real Madrid has a 32.1% chance of winning the title and Atletico Madrid a 11.7% chance.
The competition for the top four is expected to be intense, with 19 of the 20 La Liga clubs having a chance to qualify based on the simulations. Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao are likely contenders, with Villarreal having a 37.7% chance and Athletic Bilbao a 34% chance of a top-four finish.
Real Betis is predicted to finish sixth, and Real Sociedad may struggle. Osasuna, Celta Vigo, and Valencia are potential European contenders. Girona and Sevilla are unlikely to push for the Champions League spots.
The relegation battle is anticipated to be closely contested, with Real Oviedo, Elche, and Levante among the favorites for the drop. Oviedo has a 32.7% chance of being relegated, while Elche is most likely to finish at the bottom (13.1%). Levante has the best chance of staying up among the promoted teams (70.6%).
Getafe and Espanyol face risks of relegation, and Sevilla hopes to avoid a relegation struggle after finishing poorly in recent seasons.