The 2025-26 Bundesliga season is set to begin with Bayern Munich as the strong favorites, but several teams are expected to challenge for the title and European qualification. Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund are seen as the main contenders if Bayern falters. Teams like Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, Mainz, and Freiburg will compete for European spots. The return of Hamburg to the Bundesliga after seven years adds intrigue to the relegation battle, with Koln and Heidenheim also expected to struggle. The season promises plenty of excitement and competition across the league.
The 2025-26 Bundesliga season kicks off with Bayern Munich hosting RB Leipzig at the Allianz Arena. After Bayer Leverkusen's brief interruption in 2023-24, Bayern Munich emphatically reclaimed the Meisterschale in 2024-25, finishing a dominant 13 points ahead. Now, with Leverkusen weakened by key departures, Bayern looks set to continue their dominance.
Bayer Leverkusen's challenge will be formidable after losing manager Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid and key players Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Granit Xhaka, Lukas Hradecky, and Jonathan Tah. These exits significantly dent Leverkusen's squad depth and tactical flexibility. Jonathan Tah's move to Bayern, in particular, strengthens Bayern while simultaneously weakening their rivals.
Eintracht Frankfurt also face a rebuild following the €90m sale of Hugo Ekitike to Liverpool after securing a third-place finish last season. Frankfurt, however, has a history of successfully replacing star strikers. All eyes will be on Jonathan Burkardt as a potential standout performer this season.
Borussia Dortmund aims to improve on their narrow top-four finish in 2024-25. Under the guidance of Niko Kovac, a former Bundesliga-winning coach, Dortmund hopes to challenge Bayern's hegemony. Kovac's experience and tactical acumen could be crucial in Dortmund's quest for silverware.
Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, Mainz, and Freiburg all have aspirations for European qualification. According to Opta's supercomputer simulations, this battle for European spots promises to be intensely competitive. Each of these teams possesses the quality and ambition to secure a coveted place in Europe.
The return of Hamburg to the Bundesliga after a seven-year absence adds an intriguing dimension to the relegation battle. Hamburg's comeback is a welcome story for the league and their passionate fanbase, but staying up will be a significant challenge.
According to Opta’s supercomputer simulations, Bayern Munich is heavily favored to win the title, achieving this in 52.9% of the simulations. Their dominance is largely attributed to strategic acquisitions and their existing squad depth.
Bayern's key signings include Luis Diaz from Liverpool and Jonathan Tah from Leverkusen. Diaz showcased his potential by scoring the winner in the Franz Beckenbauer Cup against Stuttgart. His high-pressing style aligns perfectly with coach Kompany’s tactical approach. Diaz's ability to win possession in the final third and create scoring opportunities makes him a valuable asset.
Despite the departures of Kingsley Coman, Leroy Sane, and the legendary Thomas Muller, Bayern remains confident in their attacking prowess. Harry Kane, who has scored 86 goals since joining Bayern in 2023, is expected to continue his prolific form. Kane's exceptional goal-scoring record and overperformance in expected goals (xG) make him a key player in Bayern's quest for another title.
If Bayern falters, Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund are the primary contenders. Leverkusen, now managed by Erik ten Hag, has a 16.9% chance of winning the title, slightly ahead of Dortmund’s 15.8%.
Leverkusen's rebuild involves integrating new signings like Ibrahim Maza and Malik Tillman. Maza was acquired from Hertha Berlin, where he completed the second-most dribbles in the second tier. Tillman, an American international, scored six goals from outside the area in his final Eredivisie campaign with PSV. Leverkusen has also retained Patrik Schick, who scored 21 goals last season.
Dortmund's key player is Serhou Guirassy, who matched Schick's Bundesliga goal tally last season and was a joint-leading scorer in the Champions League. Dortmund's hopes rest on Kovac's ability to improve their defensive record and integrate new additions like Jobe Bellingham.
Beyond the title race, the battle for the top four is expected to be fiercely contested. Eintracht Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Leipzig, Mainz, Freiburg, and Werder Bremen all have realistic chances of securing Champions League qualification. However, Eintracht Frankfurt will need to compensate for the loss of Hugo Ekitike's goals.
Stuttgart's Sebastian Hoeness, highly regarded in coaching circles, aims to build on last season's success and challenge for a top-four spot. Leipzig, under new manager Ole Werner, will need to cope with the departure of Benjamin Sesko and potential exit of Xavi Simons.
The relegation battle also promises drama. Koln, despite winning the 2. Bundesliga title, are the supercomputer’s relegation favorites. Heidenheim, who narrowly avoided relegation last season, are expected to struggle again. The return of Hamburg adds another layer of intrigue to the fight for survival.
St. Pauli, another team expected to be in the mix, will rely on their defensive solidity to stay up. Hoffenheim, Union Berlin, Augsburg, and Borussia Monchengladbach are also identified as potential relegation candidates.
With a blend of title ambitions, European aspirations, and survival instincts, the 2025-26 Bundesliga season is poised to deliver a captivating and unpredictable campaign.