The Champions League’s new format brings both opportunities and challenges. Winning the league phase or finishing in the top eight doesn’t guarantee success. The increased competitive matches and the importance of consistent performance have made the competition more engaging.
The Champions League is set to kick off its second season under the revamped format, moving away from the traditional 32-team, eight-group structure to a single league phase featuring 36 teams. This change has brought about several notable observations, particularly for the six English clubs benefiting from the additional spots and Tottenham's Europa League victory.
One of the primary questions arising from the new format is whether winning the league phase provides a significant advantage. Theoretically, finishing top should guarantee an easier draw in the last 16, facing a team ranked 15th or 16th. However, last season's winners, Liverpool, experienced a tough challenge, drawing Paris St-Germain (who finished 15th) and having to navigate a challenging play-off against Brest. Despite PSG's dominant 10-0 aggregate win over Brest, they edged out Liverpool on penalties and went on to win the competition, defeating Aston Villa, Arsenal, and Inter Milan.
Another key aspect is the value of finishing in the top eight, which grants direct qualification to the last 16, bypassing the knockout round play-off. However, only half of the top eight teams reached the quarter-finals, with Atletico Madrid, Lille, Bayer Leverkusen, and Liverpool all exiting early. These teams were defeated by Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, and PSG, suggesting that the top eight finish is not a guaranteed path to success. Statistically, a top-eight finish only offered a 50% chance of reaching the quarter-finals in the first season.
English teams' dominance was another focal point. Last season saw four English teams in the league phase, fewer than Germany and Italy, who each had five. Arsenal was the standout English team, reaching the semi-finals after defeating Real Madrid. The semi-finals comprised teams from England, Italy, France, and Spain. In the league phase, English teams performed strongly, with three clubs in the top eight, compared to Spain's two. However, Germany lost two teams in the league phase, while Spain and Italy each lost one. With six English teams participating this season and four in the top 10 of UEFA's club rankings, expectations are high for greater English dominance.
The new format appears to have reduced the number of 'dead rubber' matches. In the final round of league phase games last season, only two teams had secured a top-16 spot, increasing the stakes for the remaining teams. In contrast, the previous format saw 13 of the 16 places confirmed before the final round. However, 26 teams lost all eight league phase matches, and 10 gained less than one point per match, indicating potential issues with competitive balance.
Securing a top-eight or top-24 finish requires a significant points haul. Last season, all top-eight teams amassed 16 or more points, averaging at least two points per game. Teams with 11 to 15 points typically finished between ninth and 24th, securing a knockout play-off round place, although goal difference could be a deciding factor, as seen with Dinamo Zagreb. The minimal margin for error in the eight-round league phase underscores the importance of consistent performance.
The Champions League's new format has introduced both opportunities and challenges for participating teams. While winning the league phase and finishing in the top eight offer potential advantages, they do not guarantee success in the knockout stages. The increased number of competitive matches and the need for consistent performance have made the competition more engaging, but questions remain about competitive balance and the true value of a high league phase finish.