Pep Guardiola’s tactical dominance in football is waning, leading to uncertainty and experimentation across the sport. Once a widely accepted approach, ‘Pepism’ is now being challenged by alternative strategies. Guardiola’s own adaptations, including signing Erling Haaland, raise questions about his continued adherence to his original philosophy.
The landscape of football feels altered, almost post-apocalyptic. The dominance that Pep Guardiola's tactical approach once held seems to be slipping, leaving many in the sport searching for new directions. For years, Guardiola’s innovative style influenced nearly every elite manager, either through direct adoption or adaptation.
From his initial seasons with Barcelona, Guardiola's approach to football has been profoundly influential. His philosophy’s effectiveness was so apparent and extensive that virtually every top manager has been shaped by it in some way, whether they are direct followers or adaptors of his principles.
However, this widespread acceptance is now waning. As Premier League teams explore alternative strategies focused on counter-attacking, optimized set plays, dynamic ball carriers, or more straightforward play, the certainty once associated with Guardiola's methods has diminished, replaced by open possibilities.
This shift mirrors historical moments, such as England's reassessment after Hungary exposed flaws in their W-M formation in 1953, or the broader crisis of faith in 19th-century Europe triggered by new scientific discoveries. Such times of upheaval lead to questioning long-held beliefs and a surge in experimentation to discover what is valid.
This period of uncertainty might explain the focus on acquiring classic No. 9 strikers during the recent transfer window. Clubs sought players capable of leading the line with pace, technical skill, and the ability to exploit channels—complete forwards reminiscent of Didier Drogba or Hernán Crespo. In times of wavering faith, focusing on the fundamental act of scoring goals offers reassurance. A striker who consistently delivers 20 goals a season provides a tangible measure of success.
Football is navigating uncharted waters. The influence of Guardiola's 'Pepism' is perhaps the most overwhelming the sport has seen. His arrival coincided with advancements in pitch technology, more lenient offside rules, and stricter enforcement against aggressive tackling, all of which favored technically skilled midfielders. These conditions were ripe for Guardiola's innovative style.
His ideas spread rapidly due to football’s increased globalization and scrutiny. Never before have so many top players been concentrated in a small number of clubs, drawing intense global attention.
For about 15 years, this approach was widely regarded as the most effective way to play. Even the high-pressing tactics of the German school found a way to coexist and accommodate Guardiola’s emphasis on possession and control.
One of the paradoxes of Pepism is its diverse and almost undefinable nature. Key elements include pressing, a high defensive line, using possession for control, avoiding dribbling and long shots, preferring low cut-backs over deep crosses, and managing the constant threat of counter-attacks due to the high line.
Guardiola is more adaptable than many who follow his lead. He continuously innovates and adjusts. He favors a 3-2-5 defensive structure but has executed it in various ways: one full-back overlapping while the other covers, both full-backs pushing up with a midfielder dropping into the central defense, a full-back inverting into midfield while another covers, or a back four with John Stones stepping into midfield.
Enzo Maresca and Mikel Arteta, both former assistants under Guardiola and current Premier League managers, exemplify the evolution of Pepism. Maresca represents the emphasis on control through possession, while Arteta reflects the era of maintaining four defenders at the back. Analyzing their tactics is akin to examining different vintages of Pepism.
Although Guardiola has worked with strikers like Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Robert Lewandowski, signing Erling Haaland, a classic striker with limited involvement in midfield play, marks a significant shift. The tension between Haaland's directness and Guardiola’s cautious approach contributed to their treble win but may also be a source of current challenges.
Recent decisions, such as sidelining Ederson and acquiring James Trafford and Gianluigi Donnarumma—goalkeepers who do not possess the sweeping abilities Guardiola typically requires—suggest a move toward more conventional methods. This raises the question: Is Guardiola still truly a Pepist?
Paradoxically, Guardiola, unlike Manchester United’s Ruben Amorim, has always been pragmatic, willing to adapt and tweak his approach. Evolution is central to Pepism, suggesting that it is as mutable and diverse as Peronism, with its defining principle being its origin in a single figure.
Currently, after City’s initial league defeats, Guardiola seems as uncertain and perplexed as anyone about the best path forward.