Pep’s Process: Why Manchester City’s Slow Start Doesn’t Spell Disaster

Manchester City, a club synonymous with ambition and success, finds itself at a crossroads. After a dominant era marked by 18 trophies in nine years under Pep Guardiola, the 2024-25 season concluded trophyless – only the second such occurrence during his tenure. This, coupled with the sky-high standards set by their four preceding Premier League titles, led many to dismiss it as a minor blip, attributing it to injuries and off-field legal distractions.

The response from the City hierarchy was emphatic: a staggering £320 million investment in the squad during 2025, including £180 million splashed out in January, dwarfing the rest of the Premier League's spending combined. The message was clear: Manchester City intended to reclaim their aura of invincibility and resume their winning ways. Their initial 4-0 demolition of Wolves seemed to confirm their intent, signaling a return to their ruthless best.

However, football is a game of swift and unpredictable change. Just two weeks later, the narrative has drastically shifted. A 2-0 defeat at home against Tottenham, followed by a 2-1 loss to Brighton, has thrown City's ambitions into doubt. It’s been a while since a team has won the Premier League after stumbling in their first three games. Manchester United in 1992-93 faced a similar situation, when they won the title. Guardiola's current points tally represents his lowest at this stage in any league season, triggering questions about whether this is merely a slow start or a symptom of deeper underlying issues.

Last season's title defense was significantly undermined by Rodri's cruciate knee ligament injury against Arsenal. His absence sidelined the influential midfielder for a considerable portion of the season, significantly impacting the team's performance. Before his injury, City were unbeaten and leading the league. However, without him, they suffered nine losses in their remaining 33 games – their worst performance since 2015-16 under Manuel Pellegrini.

Guardiola has consistently emphasized Rodri's pivotal role, describing him as "irreplaceable" and wishing he could clone him. City's struggles in his absence last season underscore his importance. A cornerstone of Guardiola's tactical approach involves controlling possession and anticipating potential threats. When possession is lost, immediate ball recovery is paramount to prevent opponents from exploiting open spaces. With possession, the team uses "resting" football, holding the ball to recover shape and prepare the next move, which ensures that the team maintains a defensive structure and minimizes opportunities for fast breaks.

The absence of Rodri’s control and exceptional passing severely restricted City's play. The team missed his ability to read the game, win second balls and intercept passes, which are crucial for stopping attacks. This impact translated into the numbers as City’s expected goals conceded from fast breaks significantly increased compared to previous seasons. The team's off-the-ball runs reduced, possession won in the final third decreased, and possession regained in the middle third also declined.

Despite investing nearly £100 million in midfielders like Nico González and Tijjani Reijnders, City continue to grapple with familiar weaknesses. Although they dominated possession against Spurs and Brighton, their ineffective pressing left the defence vulnerable. Both Brennan Johnson’s and Brajan Gruda’s goals originated from similar attacking patterns, with City allowing opponents excessive time on the ball, leading to passes that pulled full-backs out of position, creating gaps for fast attackers.

Currently, City ranks low in key statistics, including possession won in the final third and passes per defensive action. These statistics suggest that last season's issues are continuing into the new season.

However, there's reason for optimism. Rodri has returned to the lineup after 11 months, and his first start against Brighton showed signs of promise. He registered the most touches, completed passes, and possession recoveries in the first half. Although his impact waned later in the game, it's expected that he will return to full form.

It's worth noting that City's squad has undergone considerable changes, with key players such as Ederson, Manuel Akanji, Kyle Walker, Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gündogan, Jack Grealish and Julián Álvarez no longer present. New players require time to integrate. Guardiola is evolving his tactics, blending his possession-based philosophy with elements inspired by Jürgen Klopp, influenced by his new assistant manager, Pep Lijnders. Key changes include a more vertical and transitional style, intensified counter-pressing, and faster attacks, which addresses last season's flaws.

City are focused on being more direct and quicker without control. When they win the ball, they will try to attack immediately. As Guardiola noted, teams like Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool represent modern football, no longer purely positional, reflected in the steady increase in goals and shots from fast breaks.

The team's intensified counter-pressing ensures the team wins the ball quickly after losing it, applying pressure high up the pitch, which is often seen in Klopp and Ljinders’ “heavy metal football.” Faster attacks tie everything: once possession is regained, players move forward swiftly, combining precise passing and off-ball runs to exploit gaps before opponents can reset defensively.

Given these personnel and tactical changes, it's natural for City to experience inconsistencies early in the season. Building chemistry among new players, applying Lijnders' pressing principles, and refining transitions will take time. But if Rodri returns to his best and City can merge positional mastery with their more direct approach, there's plenty for City fans to look forward to. Patience, however, will be essential.

This is an article by WhoScored