The French Ligue 1 season of 2025-26 is nearly upon us, with the opening match between Rennes and Marseille slated for this Friday. All eyes will be on Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) as they aim to prolong their reign, following a spectacular 2024-25 season in which they secured a historic treble: the Ligue 1 title, Coupe de France, and the Champions League.
Under the guidance of Luis Enrique, PSG came close to augmenting their accomplishments over the summer, but narrowly missed out on the Club World Cup title, succumbing to Chelsea in the final. While PSG endeavors to reassert its dominance in Ligue 1—seeking a fifth consecutive league title—several teams are poised to challenge the status quo.
Marseille, under Roberto De Zerbi, hopes to maintain consistency—a rare second season with the same coach—and sustain a title challenge after faltering in the previous season. Concurrently, Lille and Monaco are determined to apply pressure, targeting Champions League qualification after mixed outcomes last season.
The previous season witnessed a tight race for Champions League berths, with a mere eight points separating second from seventh place. Monaco secured their first Champions League group stage appearance since 2018-19, while Lille narrowly missed qualification, losing out to Nice.
The league welcomes three new teams: Lorient and Paris FC, returning to the top-flight after 46 years, along with Metz, who prevailed in the relegation/promotion play-off against Reims in extra time. These newcomers will add fresh dynamics to the competition, and their survival will be a key subplot to the season.
To provide an outlook on the upcoming season, Opta’s supercomputer simulated the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season 10,000 times, analyzing the data to predict how the season will unfold.
Unsurprisingly, the supercomputer forecasts PSG as overwhelming favorites to retain their title. Luis Enrique’s squad clinched the title early in April last season, suffering only two league defeats—the first occurring after securing the championship. They concluded the season 19 points ahead of Marseille and subsequently claimed the Coupe de France and Champions League titles.
Their 84-point tally marked the highest in an 18-team Ligue 1 season, with an average of 2.5 points per game—the highest among Europe’s top five leagues in 2024-25. Furthermore, PSG led in possession (68.2%), average shots per game (18.7), and passes completed per game (656) since 2006-07.
Ousmane Dembele spearheaded their attack, contributing 46 goals (33 goals, 13 assists) across all competitions (excluding the Club World Cup). His 21 Ligue 1 goals tied for the league’s highest, sharing the honor with Marseille’s Mason Greenwood, while his 27 goal involvements were unmatched. Bradley Barcola closely followed with 24, being one of two players to achieve double figures in both goals (14) and assists (10).
PSG’s transfer activity has been modest, acquiring goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier from Lille and defender Ilya Zabarnyi from Bournemouth. Nevertheless, the Opta supercomputer assigns them a 78.7% chance of securing a fifth consecutive title, with a mere 12.8% likelihood of finishing second, and a negligible 3.7% chance of falling outside the top three.
Despite their continued dominance, upheaval looms with the potential departure of goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. Looking at historical trends, only Monaco in 2016-17 and Lille in 2020-21 have interrupted PSG’s Ligue 1 supremacy since 2012-13.
Lille is given the second-best chance of lifting the title, with a 5.5% probability, despite finishing fifth last season and losing Jonathan David, who scored 16 goals in the league. The addition of Olivier Giroud, after a lackluster spell with Los Angeles FC, may provide a boost. Our model assigns Monaco a 4.2% chance, given their consistent top-three finishes in recent seasons.
Monaco has been active in the transfer market, securing Ansu Fati and Paul Pogba, aiming to rejuvenate their careers. Marseille and Lyon each hold a 3.4% chance of winning the title, posing an uphill challenge to PSG.
While the title race may appear straightforward, the competition for Champions League positions is expected to be fiercely contested. Seventeen of the 18 teams have at least a 1% chance of securing a top-four finish, with the top three gaining automatic qualification.
Lille is favored to finish second (18.4%), with a 51.4% chance of a Champions League spot. However, the departure of Jonathan David, who accounted for 21 goal involvements, poses challenges. Lille underperformed their expected goals (xG) last season, scoring 52 goals from 55.9 xG.
Defensively, Lille faces questions with the departure of Lucas Chevalier, who played a crucial role in their strong defense. Monaco is projected to finish third (15.2%), following a strong defensive record last season. The signing of Mika Biereth in January revitalized their campaign, adding firepower upfront.
Marseille, led by Mason Greenwood, is expected to secure the final Champions League spot with a 43% chance, closely trailed by Lyon (43%), who could potentially secure a Europa League spot if they miss out on the top four. Nice, Strasbourg, and Lens also remain contenders for a top-four finish.
Regarding relegation, the newly-promoted teams—Lorient, Paris FC, and Metz—face survival battles. Metz is projected to finish bottom (17.4%) with a 32.5% chance of relegation, while Paris FC, returning to the top-flight, face similar challenges. Le Havre narrowly avoided the play-off last season and are again expected to struggle, with a 30.8% chance of relegation. Angers are also in the mix, while Auxerre face a mixed outlook, potentially competing at both ends of the table.
