The 2025-26 Serie A season is poised to be a thrilling contest, with Inter Milan tipped to dethrone reigning champions Napoli, according to Opta’s data-driven simulations. While Inter aims to reclaim the title with a strengthened squad and a new coach, Napoli faces the challenge of retaining their crown amid fierce competition. The race for Champions League spots is expected to be intense, with Roma, Juventus, and Milan all vying for a top-four finish. At the other end of the table, newly-promoted Pisa is predicted to struggle, while Sassuolo is expected to narrowly avoid relegation. Overall, the season promises a series of captivating battles across the league.
The 2025-26 Serie A season is set to ignite with reigning champions Napoli facing a stern test right from the start, as they travel to face Serie B victors Sassuolo. Last season saw Antonio Conte's Napoli snatch the Scudetto from Inter Milan on a dramatic final day, fueled by stellar performances from Scott McTominay and Romelu Lukaku, who secured a decisive 2-0 victory over Cagliari at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. This victory marked a significant triumph for Napoli, underscoring their ambition and tactical prowess under Conte’s guidance.
For Inter Milan, the previous season ended in heartbreak. Simone Inzaghi’s squad not only missed out on the league title but also suffered a crushing 5-0 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final and an exit in the Coppa Italia semi-finals at the hands of arch-rivals AC Milan. These setbacks have prompted a change, with former Inter player Cristian Chivu stepping in as the new head coach. Chivu aims to restore glory to the San Siro, building on promising displays seen at the Club World Cup.
Meanwhile, Roma narrowly missed Champions League qualification by a single point last season. With Gian Piero Gasperini now at the helm, they are determined to secure a top-four finish. Similarly, both Lazio and Milan, after failing to secure European football, welcome back familiar faces in Maurizio Sarri and Massimiliano Allegri, respectively. Both Sarri and Allegri have tasted Serie A success with Juventus, with Allegri also leading Milan to the title in 2011, adding an intriguing dynamic to their return.
The newly promoted teams, Sassuolo, Pisa, and Cremonese, inject fresh blood into the league. Cremonese secured their place after a play-off final victory over Spezia. These teams will be battling to establish themselves in Italy’s top flight, each hoping to avoid a swift return to Serie B.
According to Opta's supercomputer, which ran 10,000 data-led simulations, Inter Milan are the favorites to reclaim the Serie A title. Despite finishing one point behind Napoli last season, Inter's potent attack, led by Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram, positions them as strong contenders. Thuram's 14 goals and four assists, combined with Martinez's 12 goals and three assists, highlight their offensive capabilities. Inter have a 35.9% chance of winning the title, although Chivu faces the challenge of filling Inzaghi's shoes, who boasted a remarkable 65% win percentage.
Napoli, despite bolstering their squad, are given a 13.7% chance of retaining the title. The additions of Noa Lang, Lorenzo Lucca, and veteran Kevin De Bruyne aim to address their goal-scoring issues from last season. De Bruyne's playmaking ability, evidenced by his 170 assists during his time at Manchester City, could be pivotal. Lucca, who has scored 20 Serie A goals since joining Udinese, brings additional firepower. Conte’s proven track record in Serie A, with a league-best 2.24 points-per-game average, positions Napoli as a team to watch.
Atalanta, despite Gasperini’s departure, are expected to challenge the top two. Gasperini managed Atalanta in 342 Serie A matches, the second-most with a single club after Giovanni Trapattoni’s 402 with Juventus. The loss of top-scorer Mateo Retegui, who joined Al-Qadsiah, and potential exit of Ademola Lookman, could impact their attacking prowess. However, Atalanta's strong away form last season, with 13 wins, indicates their potential to compete at the highest level.
Roma and Juventus are considered outside contenders for the title but are expected to compete for Champions League spots. The race for these coveted positions is predicted to be tight, with multiple teams vying for qualification. Roma, under Gasperini, have a 45.9% chance of finishing in the top four. The return of Paulo Dybala from injury and the loan signing of Evan Ferguson from Brighton bolster their chances.
Juventus, with the permanent signing of Randal Kolo Muani and the addition of Jonathan David, aim to secure a Champions League spot. Milan, under Allegri, have strengthened their midfield with Ardon Jashari and Luka Modric. Lazio and Bologna also have outside chances of breaking into the top four.
In the relegation battle, Pisa are the most likely to be relegated, followed by Cremonese and Lecce. Serie B champions Sassuolo are expected to survive, along with Hellas Verona and Cagliari. Sassuolo's strong performance in Serie B, scoring the most goals (78), suggests they have the potential to stay up.
The 2025-26 Serie A season promises excitement, tactical battles, and fierce competition, with Inter Milan favored to reclaim the title and several teams fighting for Champions League qualification and survival.