ESPN’s 19 global football writers have made their World Cup 2026 predictions, and the consensus is clear — Spain and France are lifting the trophy, Lamine Yamal is the tournament’s crown jewel, and the USMNT is going home in the round of 16.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is here. One hundred and four games. Forty-eight teams. And roughly a billion opinions about who’s going to win it all.
ESPN gathered 19 of its football writers from across the globe and asked them to put their reputations on the line. Here’s what they think is coming, per ESPN.
Spain and France are the picks — but Argentina will be lurking
Sixteen of 19 writers picked either Spain or France to lift the trophy on July 19. Spain appeared on every single ballot, making them the consensus favourite. France, meanwhile, collected the most outright winner picks. Interestingly, while seven writers expect Argentina to go deep, not one picked them to actually repeat as champions. Lionel Messi and Co. open against Algeria on Tuesday.
Yamal is inevitable. Mbappé wants the Golden Boot.
Lamine Yamal is basically already being handed the Best Young Player award — 13 of 19 writers picked the Barcelona teenager, with five going as far as tipping him for the Golden Ball itself. Kylian Mbappé leads the Golden Boot race in the predictions, with seven votes, while Harry Kane is right behind him.
The breakout star? A 17-year-old Mexican kid nobody outside Mexico has fully clocked yet
Multiple writers flagged Gilberto Mora — Mexico’s 17-year-old forward and the tournament’s youngest player — as the name everyone will be Googling by the end of the group stage. Ivory Coast’s Yan Diomande, fresh off a stunning Bundesliga debut season with RB Leipzig, was the other name that kept coming up. Arda Güler of Türkiye is another one to watch.
The USMNT? Round of 16. Maybe. Sorry.
The host nation’s expectations are firmly managed here. Almost every writer predicted the United States exits in the round of 16, with several suggesting a brutal potential last-16 clash against Argentina as the adventure-ender. Mark Ogden went full pessimist: “The group stage. Sorry, guys.” Of the three host nations, Mexico is widely tipped to go furthest — the Estadio Azteca altitude effect is real, and writers know it.
The match everyone wants to see
France vs. Norway — Mbappé against Haaland — is the group stage fixture generating the most buzz. “The battle of the No. 9s, the battle of the left-footed playmakers, the battle of the wonderkids,” ESPN’s Julien Laurens gushed. Spain vs. Uruguay and Brazil vs. Morocco also got heavy love.
The boldest prediction of the lot?
Laurens went all in: “No European country has ever won the World Cup in the Americas. It will change this year — and the final will be contested by two European teams.” James Olley, meanwhile, went surgical: “Cristiano Ronaldo doesn’t score a single goal from open play.”
Bold. Brutal. Brilliant.
Buckle up — it’s going to be some ride.
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